Indian Journal of Science and Technology
DOI: 10.17485/ijst/2019/v12i47/145504
Year: 2019, Volume: 12, Issue: 47, Pages: 1-6
Original Article
Renz G. Pureza1,*, Pauline Punit2, Mildred Dj. Par1, Bernadeth G. Nobles3 and Audi B. Oliquio4
1 Bagbag National High School, Philippines; [email protected], [email protected]
2 Bagong Nayon II National High School, Philippines; [email protected]
3 College of Education Graduate Studies, Polytechnic University of the Philippines, Philippines; [email protected]
4 Department of Mathematics and Statistics, College of Science, Polytechnic University of the Philippines, Philippines; [email protected]
In this study, the researchers studied the status of rice and corn stocks in the country provided by the Philippines Statistics Authority (PSA) starting from 2000 to 2017. Objective: To provide a forecast for the monthly stock of rice and corn in the country for the next succeeding years. Methods: In this study, the researcher uses parametric univariate time series model, known as Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA), a model popularized by Box and Jenkins (1976). Findings: Utilising the SARIMA method, forecast on the rice stock could be provided using the model, SARIMA (3 1 3) (1 1 1)12. For corn stock model, SARIMA (4 1 4) (1 1 1)12 was used. These two models, resulted to a satisfactory outcomes fitted with its specified series using the past values and evaluation of its patterns. Application: This appropriate solution that would greatly help the country and its government, particularly, the policymakers, in the formulation of economic programs. The agricultural sectors would also benefit from this as they plan and provide food security for every Filipinos by reforming any of its programs to lead a better production of crops, agricultural aspects, and the development of the country’s economy
Keywords: Forecasting, Rice Stock, Corn Stock, Agriculture
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