COVID-19 is a viral disease that has been rampant around the world since its inception. India is also not untouched by COVID-19. Even though the vaccine was produced, the cases of infection are steadily increasing. The higher population density, carelessness of people, lack of medical resources, lack of testing and tracing, are some responsible factors for the coronavirus explosion.
The second wave of the epidemic COVID-19 has caused havoc in India. The first peak of COVID-19 cases was on 16 September 2020. After that, lots of fluctuations came, but from 11 February 2021 (9353 cases), the confirmed cases began to increase. After the 1st confirmed case on 30 January 2020, on 4 April 2021, it crossed the 1 lac mark.
Kermack and Mckendrick
The basic reproduction number (
Balbas L. et al.
Steven Suan Zhu and Enahoro Iboi
The value of
Data collection is done by Google Scholar and MedRxiv. The keywords “the basic reproduction number for COVID-19 in India" have been searched on various internet sources. After that, 16 research papers were selected, out of which 11 research papers are related to mathematical modeling through the compartment models, 2 research papers are related to the exponential growth method, 1 research paper is related to both the exponential growth method and the epidemic model. The one-one research articles are based on the statistical distribution and the review methodology respectively.
The estimated average value of the basic reproduction number
The range of
S.No. |
online available date |
Date or duration of the study |
Data source |
Model/method |
Used software |
Estimated Value of Ro |
Herd Immunity % |
Reference |
1 |
26/03/2020 |
Data till 25 march 2020 |
World meter (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/) |
SIR |
python |
2.108 |
53% |
|
2 |
2/4/2020 |
4 march to 22 march 2020 |
World meter |
SEIR |
Matlab |
2.28 |
56% |
|
3 |
3/4/2020 |
30 Jan. to 30 march |
John Hopkins university |
SEIR and regression |
R |
2.02 |
50% |
|
4 |
6/4/2020 |
30 Jan to 30 March 2020 |
John Hopkins University |
SIR, Exponential, logistic |
matlab |
1.504 |
34% |
|
5 |
9/4/2020 |
2 March to 7 April 2020 |
World meter/W.H.O. |
SIQR |
NA |
1.55 |
35% |
|
6 |
14/04/2020 |
30 Jan. to 28 march 2020 |
MoHFW (Ministry of health and family welfare) |
SIR |
NA |
2.6 |
62% |
|
7 |
14/04/2020 |
14 March to 3 April |
MoHFW /covid19india.org |
exponential growth |
NA |
2.56 |
61% |
|
8 |
17/04/2020 |
30 Jan. to 12 April |
World meter |
SIRD |
R |
2.8 |
64% |
|
9 |
9/5/2020 |
2 March to 2 April 2020 |
W.H.O./ MoHFW |
SEIR |
earlier Package |
1.471 |
32% |
|
10 |
26/06/2020 |
1 March to 7 May |
NA |
Exponential growth |
NA |
1.379 |
27% |
|
11 |
29/06/2020 |
NA |
MoHFW /W.H.O./covid19india |
statistical distribution |
NA |
2.6 |
61% |
|
12 |
30/06/2020 |
30 Jan. to 14 April |
John Hopkins university |
eSIR |
R |
2 |
50% |
|
13 |
5/8/2020 |
30 Jan. to 30 April 2020 |
W.H.O. |
SAIU |
NA |
1.6632 |
40% |
|
14 |
20/08/20 |
data till 30 July 2020 |
covid19india.org |
SIRD |
NA |
1.2561 |
20% |
|
15 |
28/11/2020 |
4 March to 25 April |
covid19india.org |
SEIR Generalized |
R |
2.083 |
52% |
|
16 |
19/01/2021 |
NA |
NA |
Review |
NA |
3 |
66% |
|
The estimated value of the basic reproduction number
No conflict of interest exists.
We express our gratitude and very thankful to the editor and both the reviewers for their suggestions to improve our research work.