Indian Journal of Science and Technology

Abstract

A study was carried out at Agro Climate Research Centre, Tamil Nadu Agricultural University using PRECIS and RegCM4 Regional Climate Models (RCMs) by downscaling HadCM3 (Q0) and ECHAM5 global climate model outputs at 25 km resolution. The downscaled data obtained from the RCMs were verified with CRU observed climatology and found to have good agreement. Four weather variables viz., maximum temperature, minimum temperature, solar radiation and rainfall were extracted and employed in DSSAT crop simulation model for rice yield simulation for agricultural grids of Tamilnadu State India from 1971-2100. Two treatments were fixed as control and CO2 enriched conditions. The maximum temperature and minimum temperature showed increase in temperature at the end of the century with high rate of increase for minimum temperature. Rainfall exhibited high variability. The rice yield simulations showed decline in yield in the study period for both control and CO2 enriched conditions, with later consistently showing higher yields than the former till the end of 21st century.

Keywords: 21st Century, Climate Projection, Rice Yield, Tamilnadu