Indian Journal of Science and Technology

Abstract

Background: Global warming and the resultant changes in climate may add the risk for human survival. To understand and simulate the temporal and spatial pattern of the impacts in the form of the drought, this local study over Kancheepuram district was carried out. Methods: Dynamical downscaling using RegCM4.4 model under the IPCC's latest RCP 4.5 emission trajectory was used to project future drought scenario for the end of 21st century compared to the reference period 1971- 2000. Simulated rainfall data was used to derive Standardized Precipitation index for drought assessments. Results: The projected increment in the mean day time and night time temperature was 2.3oC to 2.5oC respectively. With this the drought situations are also expected to increase towards the end of 21st century .The frequency of moderately dry (SPI values in the range of 1 to -1.49) drought situations are projected to be more in future. As per the projections, there is going to be 3 to 23% increase in the number of drought days in blocks covering the south east parts of the district such as Tiruporur, Tirukalikundram and Lathur. Application: Mainstreaming of appropriate drought proofing adaptations into developmental planning is the need of the time to enhance its resilience as far the key sectors like agriculture and water management.

Keywords: Adaptations, Climate Change, Drought, Regcm4.4, RCP 4.5, Standardized Precipitation Index