Indian Journal of Science and Technology

Abstract

Objectives: This research study presents a forecasting model that integrates an efficient discrete wavelet transform and a Backpropagation Neural Network (BPNN) for predicting financial time series. Methods/Statistical analysis: The presented model uses the wavelet transform at several time instances based on local smooth B-Spline wavelets of order d(BSd) to decompose the financial time series data. So, an approximation (long-term trends) component and several details (shortterm deviations) components are obtained. Since the details components act as a complementary part of the approximation component, to prepare a prediction model which applies all decomposed components is very advantageous. Therefore, all components are used as smooth input samples of the neural network to forecast the future of the financial time series. Findings: The proposed model is designed to forecast the stock prices of five different companies, and according to the obtained results, the presented model outperforms a conventional model that uses only the approximation component as a wavelet de-noising-based model. The numerical results have shown the prediction accuracy. Applications/Improvements: The proposed model can predict future stock prices better than the de-noised based model in nearly 70%cases. 

Keywords: B-Spline Wavelets Multiresolution, Back Propagation Neural Network, Financial Time Series, Stock Market Prediction