Prediction of COVID-19 trend in India using time series forecasting

Tabasum Mirza; Malik Mubasher Hassan; Mirza Waseem Hussain

doi:10.17485/IJST/v13i32.1214

Article

Prediction of COVID-19 trend in India using time series forecasting

VIEWS 2017
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Indian Journal of Science and Technology

DOI: 10.17485/IJST/v13i32.1214

Year: 2020, Volume: 13, Issue: 32, Pages: 3248-3274

Original Article

Prediction of COVID-19 trend in India using time series forecasting

Tabasum Mirza¹, Malik Mubasher Hassan^2*, Mirza Waseem Hussain¹

¹Lecturer Computer Science, Dept. of School Education Govt. of J&K, India
²Assistant Professor, Dept of ITE, BGSB University Rajouri J&K, India. Tel.: +917298286036

*Correspondence Author
Tel: +917298286036
Email: [email protected]

Received Date:22 July 2020, Accepted Date:16 August 2020, Published Date:01 September 2020

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

Abstract

Objectives: COVID-19 pandemic is one of the prevalent challenges mankind has ever faced and there is a lot of uncertainty prevailing over the future with respect to COVID-19. In this situation machine learning algorithms can be useful for real-time analysis and prediction of trends of the infections. The objective of the research study is to analyze the COVID-19 trend in India and forecast the trend of outbreak in near future. This model can provisionally guide the government and healthcare organizations in making preparations for the upcoming situation arising out of COVID-19 transmission. Methods: The COVID-19 data from 30-Dec 2019 to 27-July 2020 was used for prediction of COVID-19 trend in next 30 days i.e. from 28 July to 26 August. The time series forecasting approaches with ARIMA Model and PROPHET were used for forecasting. The performance of these models was evaluated using validation metrics and good performance was indicated. Findings: The prediction results indicate an increasing trend of COVID-19 positive, active and deceased cases in India for next 30 days i.e. up to 26 August 2020. Novelty: COVID-19 pandemic is a new problem. The novelty and originality of this research lies in the fact that time series forecasting is used for real time analysis and prediction of COVID-19 pandemic.

Keywords: COVID-19; time series analysis; ARIMA model; time series forecasting; PROPHET

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© 2020 Mirza et al.This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. Published By Indian Society for Education and Environment (iSee).