Indian Journal of Science and Technology

Abstract

Objectives: The main objective of this study is to develop a best model that will forecast the electricity rates of distribution utilities in Luzon. Methods/Statistical Analysis: The secondary data of price, demand and supply of electricity of distribution utilities per region in Luzon from January 2015 to March 2017 that was used in the study were gathered from MERALCO that were obtained from the official website of Wholesale Electricity Spot Market (WESM). The data were analysed by the use of statistical software such as EViews7 and MATLAB. Findings: The data were analyzed by the use of statistical software such as EViews7 and MATLAB. The models used for forecasting the participants’ electric demand is ARIMA (1, 1, 1) for CAR, Region 1, Region 2, Region 3, Region 4B and Region 5. The models for forecasting the supply of electricity are: ARIMA (2, 1, 2) for CAR, ARIMA (3, 1, 1) for NCR and Region 1, ARIMA (3, 1, 2) for Region 2, ARIMA (1, 1, 1) for Region 3 and ARIMA (2, 1, 1) for Region 4A and Region 5. The forecasted demand of electricity of distribution utilities in every region for years 2017-2019 will continue to increase. The forecasted electric supply of distribution utilities in every region for years 2017-2019 will go through an increase and decrease from time to time but still trending upwards. Additionally, it was also shown that there were no significant differences between the actual and forecasted values. Application/Improvements: Using the model electricity demand and supply rates of distribution utilities in Luzon were forecasted for the next two years.

Keywords: ARIMA Modeling, Demand and Supply, Electricity Rates, Forecasting, Luzon