• P-ISSN 0974-6846 E-ISSN 0974-5645

Indian Journal of Science and Technology

Article

Indian Journal of Science and Technology

Year: 2015, Volume: 8, Issue: 11, Pages:

Original Article

Stochastic Modeling to Prediction of River Morphological Changes

Abstract

In this paper, a new stochastic method for predicting of river morphological changes in the future is presented in the braided river. The model procedure is as follows: 1-It is to apply regression equation with bed height as a dependent parameter and three independent parameters of maximum daily flow, and its corresponding sediment discharge and bed slope, these equations were derived at certain points along the river cross-sections over a specific time. 2- By applying observed data, sediment rating curve equation as well as a relationship between slope, water and sediment discharge were derived.3- Simulation of maximum monthly flow by ARIMA stochastic modeling. 4-By substituting values obtained from step 3 into 2 and 1, respectively, river bed height was predicted along the cross-sections. The values of the deepest bed height is selected maximum scour hole depth. Yahagi River in Japan was selected as a case study due to comprehensive and accessible data base. A comparison of observed data and predicted values indicate a seasonable agreement between them.

Keywords: ARIMA, Braided River, Non-Linear Regression, Scour Depth, Stochastic Modeling

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