Indian Journal of Science and Technology
Year: 2019, Volume: 12, Issue: 37, Pages: 1-17
Tayyaba Hina1*, Sultan Ali Adil1, Muhammad Ashfaq1 and Ashfaq Ahmad2
1Institute of Agricultural and Resource Economics, University of Agriculture Faisalabad, Faisalabad–38000, Punjab, Pakistan; [email protected], [email protected], [email protected] 2Department of Agronomy, University of Agriculture Faisalabad, Faisalabad–38000, Punjab, Pakistan; [email protected]
*Author for correspondence
Institute of Agricultural and Resource Economics, University of Agriculture Faisalabad, Faisalabad–38000, Punjab, Pakistan; [email protected]
Objectives: To measure the impacts of climate change sensitivity and how it is affecting economic conditions of farmers in current rice wheat cropping system. Methods/Statistical analysis: Cross-sectional data of 210 farmers from the seven different strata were collected from Punjab, Pakistan. Climate data of baseline (1980-2010) and future (2039-2040) under representative concentration pathways 4.5 and 8.5 for five global circulation models were collected from secondary sources. The climate scenarios were used in two crop simulation models, i.e., DSSAT and APSIM. Tradeoff Analysis Model for Multidimensional Impact Assessment (TOA-MD) was used for the economic analysis. Findings: The crop modeling results of the study using different GCMs and RCPs show that there was negative impact of climate change on the yields of both major crops i.e., rice and wheat. The comparison of both CSMs given the insight that the percent losses were higher in APSIM as compared to DSSAT. The economic analysis endorsed the negative impacts of climate change on farming community. The major economic indicators (net returns, per capita income and poverty) of the study area expressed the declining trend in both RCPs (4.5 and 8.5) and all five GSMs. The observed household vulnerability to climate change percentage was more intense in RCP 8.5 as compared to RCP 4.5, however, among GCMs the figures shown higher vulnerability in hot dry climate conditions and lower in cool wet. The poverty of the study area increased with climate change and it was more prominent while using RCP 8.5 as compared with RCP 4.5.The highest increase in poverty was observed using APSIM crop model for hot-dry conditions. Application/Improvements: The study concluded that to ensure food security, poverty alleviation and to minimize climatic risks there is the need to update agronomic practices and develop adaptation strategies.
Keywords: Climatic Change Sensitivity, Economic Assessment of Climate Change, Pakistan, TOA-MD, Rice Wheat Cropping System
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